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Making Your First Trade

Overview

Congratulations on successfully depositing funds into your YC365 account! Now you're ready to make your first prediction market trade. This comprehensive guide will walk you through the entire process, from understanding market mechanics to executing your first order successfully.

Understanding Prediction Market Trading

🎯 Basic Concepts

YES/NO Tokens

Every prediction market on YC365 creates two types of tokens: - YES Tokens: Represent belief that the event will occur - NO Tokens: Represent belief that the event will NOT occur - Token Prices: Range from 0.01 to 0.99 USDT - Price Sum: YES price + NO price ≈ 1.00 USDT

Market Mechanics

  • Price Discovery: Prices reflect collective market opinion
  • Probability: Token price represents implied probability (e.g., 0.65 USDT = 65% chance)
  • Settlement: Winning tokens become worth 1.00 USDT, losing tokens become worthless
  • Trading: You can buy/sell tokens before event resolution

💡 Profit Mechanisms

Method 1: Trading Before Resolution

  • Buy Low, Sell High: Purchase tokens and sell at higher price
  • Market Timing: Profit from price movements due to news and events
  • No Wait Required: Realize profits immediately upon sale

Method 2: Hold Until Resolution

  • Binary Outcome: Win 100% or lose 100% of your stake
  • Maximum Return: Winning tokens always pay 1.00 USDT
  • Patience Required: Must wait for event to conclude

Pre-Trading Checklist

✅ Account Readiness

  • Funds Deposited: USDT balance visible in your account
  • Wallet Connected: MetaMask connected to dapp.yc365.io
  • Network Verified: Connected to BSC (Smart Chain) network
  • BNB Available: Sufficient BNB for gas fees (0.01+ BNB)

✅ Knowledge Preparation

  • Platform Familiarization: Explored the trading interface
  • Fee Understanding: Know the 0.15% trading fee structure
  • Risk Awareness: Understand potential for total loss
  • Event Research: Researched the event you want to trade

✅ Trading Strategy

  • Amount Decided: Know how much you want to risk
  • Market Choice: Selected specific market to trade
  • Position Type: Decided on YES or NO position
  • Exit Strategy: Plan for taking profits or cutting losses

Step-by-Step Trading Guide

Step 1: Market Selection and Research

Finding Markets

  1. Browse Available Markets
  2. Navigate to the main markets page img.png
  3. Browse by category (Sports, Politics, Economics, etc.) img_1.png
  4. Use search function to find specific events img_2.png

  5. Filter by time to resolution, volume, or other criteria

  6. Market Categories

  7. Sports: Football matches, tournaments, championships
  8. Politics: Elections, policy decisions, appointments
  9. Economics: GDP reports, inflation data, market performance
  10. Technology: Product launches, adoption metrics
  11. Entertainment: Awards shows, reality TV outcomes

Researching Your Chosen Market

  1. Read Event Description
  2. Understand the question being asked
  3. Check resolution criteria and sources
  4. Note the resolution timeline

  5. Review any special conditions or rules

  6. Analyze Market Information Event: "Will Team Brazil win the 2024 Copa America?" Current Odds: YES: 0.45 USDT, NO: 0.55 USDT Volume: 15,000 USDT traded Resolution: After final match conclusion Source: Official tournament results

  7. Assess Market Sentiment

  8. Current prices reflect market opinion
  9. High volume indicates active interest
  10. Price history shows recent trends
  11. Order book shows buying/selling pressure

Step 2: Market Analysis and Strategy

Fundamental Analysis

  1. Research the Event
  2. Gather information about participants
  3. Analyze historical performance data
  4. Consider current conditions and factors

  5. Look for information edges or insights

  6. Probability Assessment

  7. Estimate true probability of outcome
  8. Compare with current market prices
  9. Look for mispriced opportunities
  10. Consider margin of safety

Example Analysis

Event: "Will Bitcoin exceed $100,000 by end of 2024?"

Current Market: YES: 0.30 USDT, NO: 0.70 USDT

Your Analysis: - Market implies 30% chance of Bitcoin >$100k - Your research suggests 45% chance - Potential value in buying YES tokens - Risk: Bitcoin could fail to reach target

Step 3: Order Placement

Accessing the Trading Interface

  1. Navigate to Market
  2. Click on your chosen market img_3.png
  3. Review market details one final time

  4. Confirm you understand the event terms

  5. Choose Order Type

  6. Limit Order: Specify exact price you want to pay img_5.png
  7. Market Order: Execute immediately at current market price img_4.png
  8. Recommendation: Use limit orders for better control img_3.png

Placing Your First Order

Example Trade Walkthrough:

  1. Select Token Type
  2. Choose YES if you think event will happen img_6.png
  3. Choose NO if you think event won't happen img_7.png

  4. For our example: Select "YES" tokens

  5. Enter Order Details Token Type: YES Quantity: 100 tokens Price: 0.30 USDT per token Total Cost: 30.00 USDT Trading Fee: 0.045 USDT (0.15%) Gas Fee: ~0.01 BNB

  6. Review Order

  7. Double-check all details
  8. Verify you have sufficient balance
  9. Confirm price and quantity are correct

  10. Understand total cost including fees

  11. Submit Order

  12. Click "Place Order" or "Buy" button
  13. MetaMask popup will appear for confirmation img_8.png
  14. Review transaction details in MetaMask

  15. Click "Confirm" to submit transaction img_9.png

  16. Monitor Execution

  17. Order Status: Watch for "Pending" → "Confirmed"
  18. Partial Fills: Large orders may fill in parts
  19. Balance Update: Check token balance updates
  20. Transaction Record: Save transaction hash

Step 4: Order Management

Monitoring Your Position

  1. Portfolio Dashboard
  2. Current Holdings: View all token positions img_10.png
  3. Market Value: See current value of holdings
  4. Profit/Loss: Track unrealized gains/losses

  5. Order Status: Monitor active orders

  6. Order Book Monitoring

  7. Price Movements: Watch for price changes
  8. Volume Activity: Monitor trading activity
  9. News Impact: Be aware of relevant news
  10. Market Sentiment: Track sentiment changes

Managing Active Orders

  1. Order Modification
  2. Cancel Orders: Cancel if market conditions change
  3. Price Adjustment: Cancel and replace at new prices
  4. Size Changes: Modify order quantities

  5. Queue Position: Monitor position in order queue

  6. Position Management

  7. Profit Taking: Consider selling when profitable
  8. Loss Cutting: Exit positions if analysis proves wrong
  9. Scaling: Add to positions gradually
  10. Diversification: Don't put all funds in one market

Your First Trade Example

Complete Walkthrough

Let's walk through a typical first trade:

Scenario: New trader with 100 USDT deposited

Step 1: Market Selection

  • Chosen Event: "Will the next US inflation report show >3%?"
  • Current Prices: YES: 0.40 USDT, NO: 0.60 USDT
  • Your Opinion: You believe there's a 60% chance inflation >3%
  • Market Opportunity: YES tokens seem undervalued

Step 2: Trade Planning

  • Position: Buy YES tokens
  • Amount: Risk 20 USDT (20% of account)
  • Strategy: Buy at 0.38 USDT or better
  • Exit Plan: Sell at 0.50+ USDT or hold until resolution

Step 3: Order Execution

  1. Order Details: Type: Limit Buy Order Token: YES Quantity: 50 tokens Price: 0.38 USDT Total: 19.00 USDT Fee: 0.0285 USDT

  2. Execution:

  3. Order placed and confirmed
  4. Filled immediately (market was at 0.40)
  5. Total cost: 19.0285 USDT
  6. Position: 50 YES tokens

Step 4: Position Monitoring

  • Day 1: Price moves to 0.42 (+10.5% unrealized gain)
  • Day 3: News pushes price to 0.48 (+26% gain)
  • Decision: Sell 25 tokens at 0.48 to lock in profit
  • Remaining: Hold 25 tokens until resolution

Trading Strategies for Beginners

🎯 Conservative Strategies

Value Trading

  • Look for Mispriced Markets: Find where your analysis differs from market
  • Long-term Holds: Buy undervalued tokens and wait for resolution
  • Research-based: Make decisions based on thorough research
  • Risk Management: Never risk more than 5-10% on single trade

Diversified Approach

  • Multiple Markets: Spread risk across different events
  • Different Categories: Trade sports, politics, economics
  • Time Diversification: Mix short-term and long-term events
  • Position Sizing: Use consistent position sizes

📈 Active Trading Strategies

News-based Trading

  • Monitor News: Stay updated on relevant developments
  • Quick Reaction: Trade on breaking news before markets adjust
  • Momentum: Follow price trends after news events
  • Risk Control: Use tight stop-losses

Technical Analysis

  • Price Patterns: Look for support and resistance levels
  • Volume Analysis: High volume often confirms price moves
  • Order Book: Watch for large orders that might move prices
  • Trend Following: Trade in direction of established trends

Risk Management Essentials

🛡️ Position Sizing

The 1-5% Rule

  • Conservative: Risk 1-2% of account per trade
  • Moderate: Risk 3-5% of account per trade
  • Never: Risk more than 10% on single trade
  • Total Exposure: Limit total market exposure to 20-30%

Example Position Sizing

Account Size: 1,000 USDT - Conservative Trade: 10-20 USDT risk - Moderate Trade: 30-50 USDT risk - Maximum Trade: 100 USDT risk (exceptional cases)

⚠️ Risk Controls

Stop-Loss Strategies

  • Price Targets: Set exit prices before entering
  • Time Limits: Exit if analysis doesn't pan out within timeframe
  • News-based: Exit if fundamental assumptions change
  • Percentage-based: Exit if loss exceeds predetermined percentage

Diversification Rules

  • Event Types: Don't concentrate in one category
  • Time Horizons: Mix near-term and longer-term events
  • Market Correlation: Avoid highly correlated markets
  • Geographic: Spread across different regions/countries

Common Beginner Mistakes

🚫 What to Avoid

Emotional Trading

  • FOMO (Fear of Missing Out): Don't chase rising prices
  • Panic Selling: Don't sell everything on bad news
  • Overconfidence: Don't increase position sizes after wins
  • Revenge Trading: Don't try to immediately recover losses

Poor Risk Management

  • Over-sizing: Risking too much on single trades
  • No Exit Plan: Entering without knowing when to exit
  • Correlation Risk: Putting all money in related events
  • Ignoring Fees: Not accounting for trading fees in calculations

Analysis Mistakes

  • Insufficient Research: Trading without understanding events
  • Confirmation Bias: Only looking for supporting information
  • Overconfidence: Thinking you know more than the market
  • Ignoring Base Rates: Not considering historical probabilities

✅ Best Practices

Smart Trading Habits

  • Start Small: Begin with small position sizes
  • Keep Records: Track all trades and decisions
  • Learn Continuously: Analyze both wins and losses
  • Stay Disciplined: Stick to your predetermined strategy

Education and Improvement

  • Paper Trading: Practice without real money first
  • Community Learning: Join discussions and learn from others
  • Market Analysis: Study how markets react to different events
  • Strategy Refinement: Continuously improve your approach

Advanced Trading Features

📊 Order Types

  • Price Control: Specify exact price willing to pay
  • No Slippage: Won't pay more than intended
  • Queue System: Orders filled based on price-time priority
  • Flexibility: Can cancel if market moves away

Market Orders (Use with Caution)

  • Immediate Execution: Fill immediately at current market price
  • Price Risk: May pay more than expected in volatile markets
  • Slippage: Large orders can move market against you
  • Best for: Small orders in liquid markets

🔄 Portfolio Management

Position Tracking

  • Real-time Values: Monitor current value of all positions
  • Profit/Loss: Track realized and unrealized gains/losses
  • Performance Metrics: Analyze win rate and average returns
  • Risk Exposure: Monitor total exposure across all positions

Rebalancing Strategies

  • Profit Taking: Systematically take profits at predetermined levels
  • Loss Cutting: Exit losing positions before they become too large
  • Position Sizing: Adjust position sizes based on conviction
  • Diversification: Maintain proper spread across different markets

Trading Psychology and Discipline

🧠 Mental Framework

Emotional Control

  • Accept Losses: Understand that losses are part of trading
  • Manage Expectations: Don't expect to win every trade
  • Stay Patient: Good opportunities require patience
  • Avoid Tilt: Don't let emotions drive decisions

Decision Making

  • Pre-planned Decisions: Decide entry and exit points before trading
  • Stick to Plan: Don't deviate based on emotions
  • Review Process: Regularly review and improve decision-making
  • Learn from Mistakes: Analyze both successful and failed trades

📈 Long-term Success

Continuous Learning

  • Market Education: Keep learning about prediction markets
  • Strategy Development: Continuously refine trading strategies
  • Risk Management: Always prioritize capital preservation
  • Community Engagement: Learn from other traders' experiences

Building Expertise

  • Specialization: Develop expertise in specific market categories
  • Information Sources: Build network of reliable information sources
  • Analysis Skills: Improve fundamental and technical analysis
  • Execution Skills: Become more efficient at order management

Next Steps and Resources

🚀 Continuing Your Journey

After your first trade: 1. Reflect on Experience: Analyze what went well and what could improve 2. Continue Learning: Explore advanced trading concepts 3. Build Strategy: Develop your personal trading approach 4. Join Community: Engage with other YC365 traders 5. Scale Gradually: Slowly increase position sizes as you gain experience

📚 Additional Resources

🤝 Getting Support

If you need help: - FAQ Section: Check common questions and answers - Community Forums: Ask questions in community channels - Customer Support: Contact support team for technical issues - Documentation: Refer to comprehensive trading guides

Congratulations! 🎉 You've completed your first trade on YC365! Remember that successful trading is a journey of continuous learning and improvement. Start small, trade responsibly, and focus on developing your skills over time.

The key to success in prediction markets is combining thorough research, disciplined risk management, and continuous learning. Welcome to the exciting world of prediction market trading!